Prediction of Ozan Baris vs Michele Mecarelli at M15 Antalya 10 Dec 2025

• Ozan Baris has slightly better recent second serve performance, winning 44.50% of points, a narrow edge over Michele Mecarelli's 43.59%. Could this influence the outcome?
• Baris excels in returning second serves, securing 44.27% of points, while Mecarelli captures 41.78%. However, Mecarelli leads in returning first serves with a 30.38% success rate, compared to Baris’s 26.05%.
• Under pressure, Baris saves 58.12% of breakpoints, notably higher than Mecarelli's 49.59%, indicating stronger resilience in critical moments.
• Match win percentages over the past year are close, with Mecarelli slightly ahead at 60.00% compared to Baris's 57.14%.
• Surface preferences reveal Baris's best performance on Indoor Hard courts (57% win rate), whereas Mecarelli shows proficiency on Clay surfaces (57% win rate).
• Baris has excelled in Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments, with a 75.00% win rate, surpassing Mecarelli's 60.00% win rate in the same tournament category.
• Mecarelli has faced higher-ranked opponents on average (ranked 188.15) than Baris (ranked 389.43), suggesting a tougher competitive environment.
• In matches extending to a deciding set, Baris performs better, winning 67% of such encounters, in contrast to Mecarelli's 40% success rate.
• Break point conversion indicates Mecarelli's efficiency with a 37.31% conversion rate, outpacing Baris’s 27.54%—an important factor during key game moments.

Editorial Prediction (December 10, 2025, UTC):

Ozan Baris and Michele Mecarelli come into this match with comparable performance metrics, though slight differences could sway the outcome. Baris shines in second serve point wins and breakpoint saves, crucial under match pressure.

While Mecarelli displays superior first serve return capability and breakpoint conversion, his encounters with higher-ranked opponents might suggest he is well-tested against strong competition.

Long matches favor Baris, who has a higher success rate in deciding sets, posing a potential advantage if this match extends. In the surface-specific context, the type of court could play a pivotal role.

Given their current form and statistical nuances, Ozan Baris edges out slightly as the likely winner for this upcoming tennis match, though the competition remains tight.